Weighted pipeline discounts every open pursuit by how likely you are to win it. A $10M pursuit at 30% contributes $3M; a $2M pursuit at 90% contributes $1.8M. Add them up and you get a forecast that’s harder to inflate than the raw pipeline.
Why it matters
Raw pipeline value treats a long-shot public bid and a negotiated job you’re about to sign as the same dollars. Weighting gives leadership a more honest view of how much new work is likely to land, which feeds hiring, bonding conversations and how hard to chase the next pursuit.
Worked example
Illustrative open pipeline:
| Pursuit | Estimate | Probability | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medical office building | $22.5M | 75% | $16.9M |
| Senior living | $18.9M | 55% | $10.4M |
| Clinic expansion | $12.4M | 40% | $5.0M |
| Total | $53.8M | $32.2M |
Common mistakes
- Probabilities nobody updates, so the weighting is stale.
- Every pursuit at 50% because no one wants to commit.
- Treating weighted pipeline as booked revenue or backlog. It’s a forecast.
How os.construction handles it
Weighted pipeline is a metric in Analytics, labeled Modeled: the sum of amount × probability over open CRM opportunities. CRM Home shows the company intake total as Weighted forecast, and the CRM & Pipeline pack breaks it down by stage and owner. The amounts are staff estimates, not budgets or contract values.